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By Christian George
As Nigeria’s political terrain braces for a potentially game-changing 2027 general election, the ruling All Progressives Congress and its flagbearer, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, find themselves in a paradoxical position—poised to benefit from a fractured opposition, yet threatened by the possibility of a unified front.
The Chairman of the New Nigeria People’s Party in Ondo State, Pastor Peter Olagookun, made this observation during an interview with the News Agency of Nigeria. He warned that unless leading opposition figures subordinate personal ambitions for collective strategy, the much-talked-about coalition could collapse before it begins.
He reiterated that without genuine unity, the coalition will disintegrate like dust and APC will benefit from that disarray. “Except and until the key actors driving the planned coalition to unseat the ruling All Progressives Congress unite, they may not realise their political objectives,” Olagookun stated, underscoring the precarious balance that may either secure Tinubu’s political stronghold or unravel it entirely.
Olagookun highlighted the role of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, urging him to step aside from his presidential ambition and support NNPP’s Alhaji Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso as the coalition’s northern candidate. “Former President Olusegun Obasanjo, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, Mr Peter Obi, Mallam Nasir El-Rufai, and others advocating for an opposition coalition should persuade Atiku to step aside from the 2027 presidential race. He should support his brother, Kwankwaso, and together they should select a strong candidate from the South as his running mate,” Olagookun said.
He warned that without such unity, “the coalition will not work; it will collapse like dust before the 2027 general election.” According to him, a North-South ticket anchored by Kwankwaso and a credible southern running mate could offer the opposition a real chance at dislodging the APC. “The only viable path to victory lies in compromise. Atiku should step aside and support Kwankwaso. That way, posterity will remember him as a statesman who prioritized national interest,” Olagookun said.
While commending Atiku for his efforts in mobilising opposition leaders, Olagookun stressed that effective coalition-building will require more than just dialogue—it demands sacrifice and strategic alignment. “I believe that with this arrangement, the ruling party will not be able to withstand the opposition. The evolving dynamic places President Tinubu in a unique position. As long as opposition egos remain unchecked, he stands to benefit from their disunity.
The more they argue over who should lead in the coalition, the easier they make it for Tinubu to remain in office and every ego trip, unresolved negotiation remains free political capital for the APC. Olagookun’s comments underscore a crucial dynamic: President Tinubu benefits from the optics of a fractured opposition, where no single rival commands the collective backing necessary to mount a serious challenge.
With each opposition party strategizing in isolation, Tinubu can maintain his political momentum with minimal resistance. However, should the opposition consolidate effectively turn around a consensus candidate, his political dominance could face serious jeopardy in 2027.
While Tinubu currently benefits from internal divisions among the opposition, political analysts warn that this advantage is temporary. If parties like the NNPP, PDP, and Labour Party successfully converge around a common goal and candidate, the president’s electoral base could face its most formidable test yet.
With widespread economic dissatisfaction, security concerns, and public criticism over governance, Tinubu’s incumbency no longer guarantees electoral certainty. A unified opposition, Olagookun suggested, could mobilize disenchanted voters across regional and party lines, turning the president from a political victor into a vulnerable incumbent.
Thus, Tinubu remains both the beneficiary of a fragmented opposition and a potential victim of a unified one. As the 2027 election cycle draws nearer, whether he retains power may depend less on his own popularity—and more on whether the opposition can get its act together.
